Thursday, May 7, 2009


In the first week of March 2009, Wall Street was preparing for Financial Armageddon. Just a month later we are on the road to recovery and the stock market rally continues - totally ignoring any negative / bearish news flow. When markets totally ignore bad news or interpret any bad news as ‘better than expected bad news’ its wise to be cautious.

The Banks that were on the verge of total collapse are now quite confident of raising billions of dollars in capital from the private sector.
Gigantic derivative positions still haunt these ‘solvent banks’, and it's hard to believe these guys have enough capital to sustain further losses from derivatives/ mortgage backed securities/credit card loans.
For their sake, the economy better recover really quickly or we will be headed into round 2 of the ‘save the banks’ game.

It's important to note that as markets staged their incredible recovery, the USD has lost some ground, and commodities like Copper, Crude Oil and precious metals Gold & Silver have recovered somewhat. US Treasuries yields are also rising and the FED may have to step up its purchases here, as it struggles to keep rates down.

Rising commodity prices and rising treasury yields could derail any ‘green shoot recovery’ that the pundits claim they now see!!

Why We Are Absolutely Screwed
Bank of America May Need About $34 Billion of Capital
The Bottom
Preliminary Stress Test Results
Here's Ron Paul again - The one guy who still continues to grill Bernanke!

EDIT : FRIDAY 8th MAY 2009:
I just came across Ron Paul's reaction to the Bank Stress Test results.

1 comment:

K P said...

I find it really hard to believe that these banks will ever make their money back.

However, it's refreshing to see that there are new banks such as the new green bank coming to my area, e3bank (,that seems to have a solid, triple bottom line plan, that could help them to avoid the mistakes of their predecessors.