Showing posts with label US DOLLAR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US DOLLAR. Show all posts

Saturday, September 8, 2012

GOLD & EURUSD - INTRADAY - 7th SEPTEMBER 2012

Well, promises from the ECB, a below expectations jobs number in the USA, hopes of QE3 from the FED....... and we see a breakout in Gold and a EURO/USD rally!

These really are crazy days. Hopes....promises....and stop gap fixes. A mega global equity rally today and now a rally in precious metals and the Euro.

WATCH THIS SPACE!

Thursday, August 30, 2012

$16,000,000,000,000 !!!!


Well depending on where you read it, US Debt has now already crossed / is about to cross the $16 trillion mark!
(Yes, that's a large number of ZEROS!)

What is worrying is the rate at which it has risen this past year and the prudent market watcher can only worry about the cost of servicing this massive debt in the future once interest rates rise!!

Meanwhile, markets were trending upwards ahead of  the Federal Reserve's annual  symposium at Jackson Hole. However, it now appears that we may not hear anything new and markets are heading into the annual meet in a rather lacklustre manner.
So no QE3 for now I guess??

"""""November 16, 2011 was a historic date: that's when the US officially surpassed $15 trillion in debt for the first time since World War 2. We celebrated it by cheering $15,OOO,OOO,OOO,OOOBAMA. Today, August 28, 2012, is when we can unofficially celebrate again, because 286 days after the last major milestone was surpassed with disturbing ease, total US debt following today's $35 billion auction of 2 Year bonds is, well, in a word: $16,OOO,OOO,OOO,OOOBAMA! 
The result: $16.05 trillion, which is what the debt to the penny will officially show next week.
          ..................................................
          ....................
Of course this will be the total following the balance of this week's auctions. In the meantime, the US is now officially between that ceiling and a $16 trillion floor.
But wait. You aint's seen nothing yet. At this rate of growth, total US debt will surpass:

  • $17 trillion on June 10, 2013;
  • $18 trillion on March 23, 2014;
  • $19 trillion on January 3, 2015; and
  • $20 trillion on October 16, 2015
And on, and on, and on..."""""
MORE LINKS :

Some clear thinking on the debt

""""August 29, 2012Rome, Italy
If you haven’t heard yet, the United States of America just hit $16 trillion in debt yesterday. On a gross, nominal basis, this makes the US, by far, the greatest debtor in the history of the world. 
It took the United States government over 200 years to accumulate its first trillion dollars of debt. It took only 286 days to accumulate the most recent trillion dollars of debt. 200 years vs. 286 days.
This portends two key points: 
1. Anyone who thinks that inflation doesn’t exist is a complete idiot; 2. To say that the trend is unsustainable is a massive understatement.    """""""


Sunday, August 19, 2012

Chart of the Day: Chinese stocks in steep downtrend & CBOE VIX AT NEW LOWS

As stock markets around the world continue to edge upwards, the Chinese Equity Markets and the CBOE VIX have both been trending downwards.

Chart of the Day - Chinese stocks in steep downtrend

Equity valuations continue to be driven by hopes of QE3 and Bailouts/handouts by Central Bankers rather than fundamentals, which at this stage are still looking rather weak.

As the VIX trends to new lows, it's important to take profits in stock portfolios and rebalance them towards more stable large cap companies that preferably have less leverage than their mid-cap counterparts.


Thursday, December 8, 2011

IS PLATINUM CHEAP RELATIVE TO GOLD ?

Here's a great article from Willem Weytjens of www.profitimes.com   on the ongoing discount of Platinum vs Gold.

As the author mentions in the article, platinum may not be cheap at the moment but it certainly appears to be undervalued vs Gold

http://profitimes.blogspot.com/2011/11/platinum-cheapest-precious-metal.html
Here's an excerpt from his article.
"""These days, gold is trading near all-time highs, while platinum is trading about $700 below its all-time high reached in 2008.
Since 1972, Platinum traded at about 1.35 times the price of Gold on average. Right now, Platinum is even cheaper than gold, trading at only 0.92 times the price of Gold. As we can see in the chart below, this is a rather “rare” situation. It only happened in the early 80′s and for a short time in 1974. In 1972, 2000 and 2008, it even traded as much as 2.30 times the price of Gold (monthly basis).

Based on this ratio over the last 40 years, we can say that Platinum is “cheap” relative to Gold.""""
Watch this space!

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

GOLD : Overextended after a massive run : more volatility to come

After testing $1900, gold prices have corrected sharply. In the near term prices continue to remain overextended, well above supporting trendlines at $1640.

I continue to remain a long term bull, but would once again remind readers that in the short term, gold prices will continue to be volatile and reacting to options expiration and the FED's Jackson Hole meeting at the weekend.

Here is a fantastic chart from Jesse's Café Américain - a super site for all gold related news and excellent unbiased market analysis.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

MARKET UPDATE: THESE ARE CRAZY DAYS

Just a quick post today before I put up some detailed analysis soon.


There's so much happening in markets these days - Debt Ceiling, US AAA downgrade, Equity Market crashes, a really manic VIX (Volatility S&P500 ^VIX), UK Riots and all the ongoing discussion of the ''fragile'' global economic recovery!!


Below is a snapshot of todays wildly gyrating markets! For the ''goldbugs'' out there, Gold has been riding high, driven upwards by all the uncertainty & it is overbought in the near term!




The FED has signalled that it wishes to keep rates at record lows well into 2013!----the recovery must be more fragile than they first thought.








Overall, I would refrain from any risk taking at the moment and would look to hedge gold positions. In the medium term, I expect gold to continue to be volatile in a price range of $1550 to $1780(New all time high as of today).

Will come back with some market specific ideas soon.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

THE ONGOING RECOVERY - NOT!

As the US Government is negotiating to raise the US Debt Ceiling, Central Bank Governors around the world are struggling to keep the fragile economic recovery intact while tackling inflation concerns at the same time.

Below are some magazine covers, that you would not expect to see at this stage of a economic recovery!





Friday, May 27, 2011

DJIA - THE RALLY GOES ON

As the rally in the US equity market continues, even the most ardent ''bear'' is probably just about ready to throw in the towel.

Can this rally be explained in light of deteriorating fundamental news such as rising unemployment and government debt levels ?

Perhaps now is the time for the prudent investor to re-assess his risk reward matrix.
Does waiting for a possible upside from current levels justify the risk at this stage?
Some analysts are saying that the current rally since 2009 has started to form a bearish ascending wedge formation on the charts, and that it's time to book profits.

The Bullish Bear Blog's view:


  • The risk reward ratio is clearly not in favour of the long only investor.


  • After a monster rally from the lows back in March 2009, potential downside risk clearly outweighs any possible upside.


  • The mega rally has exhausted a large percentage of short positions in the market. This in turn means that the market has much less support on the downside if a correction ensues.


  • Meanwhile the market continues to ignore serious issues like the Club med debt crisis, unemployment issues in the US & steadily rising government debt levels in the developed world.

Monday, May 2, 2011

RISING GASOLINE PRICES

A chart from http://www.chartoftheday.com/.

A weak USD and high Crude Oil prices has resulted in rapidly rising gasoline prices.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

SILVER - SOARING PRICE & RISK !

Here is a fantastic Silver chart from Carl Swenlin of Decision point.com.



Here is the link:Silver Still Soaring












Clearly, silver has had a fantastic rally, and could possibly rise still further as speculators rush in. The Bullish Bear Blog has been bullish on Silver ever since the inception of the blog.



However, the almost vertical rise prices makes me wary of a sudden selloff ! Buying in at this stage is ''HIGHLY RISKY''.



For those already long the white metal, I think it's time to start booking profit in stages and sticking to stop losses, to lock in profits.



Wait for a pull back to invest, and yes it's time to take some chips off the table for now.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

ROBERT PRECHTER : 6 TRENDS ABOUT TO REVERSE

Here's an article I came across in 'The Business Insider' > Robert Prechter: These 6 Trends Are About To Reverse‎
"

Prechter argues there are several themes out there right now that investors, economists, and markets all believe to be true just like they did with interest rates in the 1980s.




  • The dollar - everyone is bearish.


  • Interest rates - everyone thinks they're going to rise.


  • The stock market - everyone is bullish but corporate insiders.


  • Inflation expectations - everyone thinks it is going to go higher.


  • Economy - everyone is confident in 2011.


  • Oil - everyone thinks it is heading higher.

"


He makes some really valid points. Ignore the principles of 'Madness of crowds' and 'mean reversion' at your own risk.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

EURO RALLY - SUSTAINABLE....NOT

A positive rate outlook for the Euro and the continuing downtrend in the USD has resulted in quite a sustained uptrend in the EUR USD exchange rate. As the Club Med nations come to the table asking for handouts, the ECB has gone ahead with the first of many proposed rate hikes. Rising inflationary pressures as a result of booming commodity prices led by Crude Oil could have forced the ECB's hand at this point.

But is this rally in the EURO justified?


Is the USD in much worse shape than the Euro?


Here's my analysis:



  • The Euro has considerable exposure to Club Med and is by no means out of the woods.
  • .
  • The USD too has many structural weaknesses - rapidly expanding Federal debt levels, terrible finances at the state and municipal government level, a slumping housing market and uncomfortably high unemployment.
  • .
  • But the fact remains that the USD is oversold at the moment.
  • .
  • The CBOE VIX is currently trading well under 20, at 18 currently. A warning sign for perma bulls.
  • .
  • Equity markets are far too complacent at the moment, totally ignoring the headwinds of $113 Crude Oil and all the negative geo -political newsflow. The risk reward ratio is clearly against the prudent investor. .

  • Just like 2008, an equity market sell off will once again be accompanied by risk aversion and a rebound in the USD as investors shun other risky asset classes ( emerging market equities and hot commodities) for the relative safety of the USD and the US Bond Market. The USD always benefits from the flight to safety during market panics.

Sadly,most fiat currencies are seriously flawed as governments continue to ignore structural problems of their economies, preferring to ''kick the can further down the road''.


This is reflected in the fact that Gold and Silver continue to rally in most currencies.

Commodity currencies like the CAD, Swedish Krona & the Australian Dollar remain vulnerable to a sell off in the commodity markets. The Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have also shown sustained strength vs the USD.
To conclude, I expect the USD to recover when the stock market starts to sell off & I expect further negative newsflow from Club Med in coming months to weaken the ''overbought'' EURO.

SILVER FEVER !!

Most fans of the precious metals sector will obviously be over the moon after the monstrous rally in Silver in 2011 so far.

The USD continues its sell off, while the Euro rally continues despite all the trouble with Club Med.

With all the momentum in Siver bullion, prices could rise still further.

Personally, I would advise against any opportunistic buying at the moment, as the risk reward ratio is clearly against the long only trader for now.

For those investors with access to hedging strategies, perhaps they can use put options to protect long positions, given the overbought position in Silver.

Mr P. Radomski of Sunshine Profits has some excellent analysis in his latest free update.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

VIX & COMPLACENCY & the UNPREDICTABILITY of MARKETS

Despite all the news on Libya, Japan, the EU Debt crisis and the discussions of raising the US Federal debt ceiling, global stock markets continue to trend upwards.

Are we overdue for a spike in the VIX ?

Monday, March 28, 2011

THE FED & the US ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE

Here is a follow up post to my March 15, 2011 post on the correlation of the S&P 500 with the size of the FED Balance Sheet.

Graham Summers of ''Gains Pains Capital'' has also put up a detailed note on the US Monetary Base.


Below is a chart from the above mentioned article.

Friday, March 25, 2011

EVENT RISK FOR MARKETS - CAVEAT EMPTOR

Global equity markets these days seem to be totally unaffected by all the geopolitical turmoil and natural disasters of the last few months.

Once again the ever cautious David Rosenberg chips in with words of wisdom, alerting investors to the many risks that the market is currently ignoring. (Note to readers - David Rosenberg's Newsletter ends its free trial period this month, so this will be the last of his charts on this blog)