Countrywide Financial - Bear Stearns - Freddie Mac - Fannie Mae - Lehman Bros - AIG...and a few more big names all set to join the list.Thursday, September 18, 2008
US FINANCIALS : D - DAY
Countrywide Financial - Bear Stearns - Freddie Mac - Fannie Mae - Lehman Bros - AIG...and a few more big names all set to join the list.Wednesday, September 10, 2008
FRANNIE : Privatizing Profits & Socializing losses:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/11/dodd-fannie-freddie-biz-wash-cx_bw_0711housing.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7gQ4D5KgrIQ
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/business/july-dec08/paulson_07-11.html
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/departing-paulson-says-no--bailout-for-fannie-and-freddie-1452477.html
Well that’s all folks! Bailout done and done!!
Privatizing Profits & Socializing losses:
Bailing out homeowners who borrowed way more than they could ever repay
Bailing out banks that were downright reckless while issuing these loans
Bailing out the investment banks that created a CDO web so complex that they don’t know what they own, let alone value these securities.
And finally making the tax payer the paymaster of the whole catastrophe!
Talk about long term damage to integrity of the financial system!!!
2008 has been a year of immense strain for world financial markets, one shock after another, with no end to the bad news in sight. Sunday’s actions make the Bear Stearns debacle look like child’s play. Each shock is worse than the last one, and the men at the helm continue to reassure us that everything’s under control. Imagine if things took a turn for the worse!!!
The one thing I found really incredible was the continued strength in the USD and weakness in Precious metals even after the announcement.
National debt is going through the roof, the housing market continues to seek lower levels, inflation and unemployment are rising!!! and no one seems to care, and the USD rally continues
Well, what’s coming up next?
Will we see the GSE’s now shrink their Mortgage Portfolios?
How will this impact the housing market?
Can they issue shares to the Treasury in the future if they can’t pay up on promised Preferred stock dividends?
Are we going to see a rate cut from the FED?
So who’s next Washington Mutual or Lehman Brothers?
_______________________________________________
BIG PICTURE covers it well.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/fannie-freddi-2.html
Well, if the bailouts not enough, the lets tweak the taxation laws for the GSEs
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/paulson-gives-fannie-and-freddie-tax.html
Well the shares are now where they should be! Heres who owns them/ did until a few months ago!!!
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/09/08/who-is-taking-the-big-hits-on-fannie-freddie-shares/
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/09/06/jim-rogers-book/
US Is "More Communist than China": Jim Rogers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26603489
Other links worth a read
http://seekingalpha.com/article/94218-8-quick-comments-on-the-freddie-fannie-bailout-plan
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/ny-times-fannie-freddie-nationalization.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/freddie-fannie-notable-comments-mainly.html
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2008/09/one-of-many-sca.html
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2008/09/dont-say-you-we.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQwEq.iCBzMk&refer=home
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b349ff60-7cd8-11dd-8d59-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1129.htm
Sunday, August 17, 2008
GOLD – WHAT HAPPENED?

Gold has been slam-dunked, Oil is on its way down, the USD rebounds and the rally in Commodities is over!!!
So what happened?
Lets begin with an interesting article I came across on ‘ Central bank Intervention in currency markets’
http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current Mystery Solved 7 Aug 2008.
The Triggers:
The slowdown in Europe will result in the ECB cutting rates.
The USA lead things on the way down, and so will be the first to recover.
The global slowdown has lead to a fall in oil consumption.
Weakening trends in the EURO and Oil and a strong USD
If there’s one thing that’s clear now, it’s that the ECB is in an equally tight spot as the FED. The FED has company!!! Does the ECB cut rates to avert a recession or does it fight inflation?
Are falling Oil prices a good sign, if they are due to contraction in demand?
Clearly speculators are bailing out too, but global demand is slowly!
The USD has pulled back sharply as the ‘Short USD/Long commodities’ trade unwound and the current uptrend is almost as severe as the breakdown in Gold. It should meet some resistance near the 78 level on the USDX.(Remember that the USDX index is EURO dominated) 

So is the worst really over? (AGAIN)
While gold looks really beaten up at the moment, and Gold stocks have fared even worse, not a lot has changed in the last 2 weeks.
Central Banks are still dead scared of deflation!! And will use every means possible to get another bubble going. So that’s going to mean more intervention,bailouts and handouts to the clowns that got us into this mess in the first place.
Its also important to remember that Gold has historically never been strong in the May – August period, (usually bottoming out by August end.), so the USD rebound has added to the severity of the sell off.
I have been buying gold on declines, as it has smashed through one support after another ( $ 878.5, $ 850, $ 790), by staggering my purchases on the way down. The selloff has been so sharp that I expect a pullback especially as the Euro/USD has strong support at the 1.45 level.
So is this the return of Goldilocks? I think not!
----The US Housing market is still in a mess
----Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae need a bailout – or let’s just change the rules of the game for them!
----Are the write downs in the financials over? Or is the best yet to come? ( Like the recent settlements in the Auction rate Securities Lawsuits) More Capital raising / financial firms cutting Dividends?
----I ask again? What is the current market value of the ‘Toxic Bear Stearns securities held by the FED’ – No write downs there I hope?
----Is the strength in the USD due to any inherent fundamental change in the USD, or just due to the slowdown elsewhere?
----Can the Fed really hike rates to support the USD?—risking a meltdown in the US housing market and a collapse in US Consumer sentiment and consumption. On the other hand, how would the USD react, if the FED cut rates late into 2008?
----How long are the Central Bank Currency market interventions going to keep things afloat? Are they tackling the crux of this crisis( overleveraging and cheap credit) or just delaying an impending meltdown?
----Will the Volatile USD, (now strengthening), cause large USD holders to try to diversify out of the USD?
----Who’s going to blink first and do a bailout of a major Financial Institution- The Fed or the ECB?
----Even if the strength in the USD holds for a while yet, would you put money into stocks in an environment of inflation and slowing growth, where defaults across many sectors( not just financials) are likely to increase? I would be extremely wary of any analysts trying to call a bottom in stocks (especially the financials)!!!
----What impact is the Stronger USD going to have on the financial results of large US multinational companies whose results until recently have been ‘bolstered’ by the sliding USD. Extraordinary Forex losses in the second half maybe?
Friday, July 25, 2008
HERE WE GO AGAIN : US FINANCIALS: FOOL'S RALLY !!!
''''The credit crisis was over - Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae bailed out - and the housing market settling down''' .................UNTIL YESTERDAY.
As data from the US Housing sector continues to deteriorate, the banks may be set for a fresh round of writedowns.
An endless number of bailouts and low interest rates on the USD, are going to erode the purchasing power of the USD in the long run.
I wouldn't trust this rally, and would instead look at adding to gold positions on further declines in the precious metal.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
GOLD: THE PERFECT STORM
- Tensions in the Middle East,
- A possible Bailout of the GSEs,
- Surging Crude Oil prices
- A possible DJIA close below 11,000??
Wait and Watch!!
Friday, July 11, 2008
FREDDIE MAC & FANNIE MAE : NEW LOWS
Henry Paulson said that he had been assured by the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) that the companies have enough capital.
Talk about being behind the curve. As these Government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) are struggling to survive, and may need a GOVERNMENT BAILOUT themselves, the Treasury Secretary and the FED, expect them to support the collapsing US Housing market.
Will we see a Government Bailout or a further easing of their Capital requirements?
Clearly too big to fail!!!!!
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