Friday, November 20, 2009


The US dollar has continued to trend downwards as risk aversion levels continue to recede.

Here is a chart by Clive Maund, from his Kitco update on Nov 16, 2009.

His Gold and Silver updates are always a good read, and his charts are insightful too.
Despite the fact that we are in a seasonally strong period for gold, the rally in gold appears a bit overextended in the near term.
Equity markets too are near their recent highs, even as fundamental newsflow has not improved significantly.
Question is - Are we headed for another leg down in the USD? or does it rebound just because it has been weak for so long?
Too many people are expecting the USD to head downwards, and that is something that makes me cautious at this stage.
Past experience has showed us how the USD rebounds when there is a market sell off.
In the short run at least, the USD could surprise the overconfident USD Bears!

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