Saturday, August 8, 2009

S&P500 vs GOLD

The equity markets have staged a remarkable recovery from their March 2009 lows.

Markets may be running ahead of themselves.
This looks more like a technical bounce from oversold levels, rather than the base formation of a longer term recovery supported by fundamentals.

I continue to maintain a view that we could be in for a relapse sometime in the next 6-9 months.
Festering issues like unemployment and wage deflation continue to threaten any sustainable recovery in a 'consumer' driven US economy.

Gold has been relatively stable. It's been a hedge against market instability and currency volatility so far, and will eventually be a hedge against inflation when it finally shows up.

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