July and August are 'crucial' months as far as the 'southwest monsoons' are concerned.
There's going to be a lot of drought relief work needed in the rural areas and water cuts in cities, if the monsoons fail to return.
Food crop failures will mean rising food prices and the need for 'loan waivers' in rural India.
The governments deficit is growing, and the stress of a 'failing' monsoon will add to the governments' burden.
As the map below shows; highly populated states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have been badly affected. This not only means a food shortage (as these are agricultural regions), but it also means that many many families (especially farmers) will be badly affected.
With many state level elections coming up, local governmnets will face an uphill struggle, as the 'opposition' seeks to highlight the governments' inadequate response to the failing monsoon!
Yes unfortunately; its election politics again!!!!!.
EDIT: 21August 2009: Here's a great link on the monsoons so far:
Shreekant Sambrani: Talking down the drought
Source: Indian Met Dept:Monsoon-2009: Current status