Tuesday, February 24, 2009

THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE JAPANESE YEN !













USDJPY (Japanese Yen to 1USD): The declining blue line in the graph above indicates a weakening USD and a thus a strengthening JPY.
Even as global stock markets retest recent lows, the rapid uptrend in the JPY seems to have come to an end. http://www.cnbc.com/id/24419477/


GDP data coming out of Japan has been terrible, as export oriented Japanese Blue Chip MNC's struggle with falling sales in the US Market. The strong JPY really hurt profits !


Has the dreadful fundamental data finally managed to overwhelm the unwinding of the Carry Trade?

OR

Have currency speculators sensed a trend shift and bailed out of the JPY all of a sudden?

OR

Are we finally seeing a reduction in risk aversion ? ( given the terrible economic data everywhere, I don't think thats possible just yet)

Edit : Bernanke Sees 2010 Economic Recovery `Only If' Markets, Banks Stabilize Just saw this headline on Bloomberg, so I guess risk aversion is here to stay !


WATCH THIS SPACE.

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