Monday, March 7, 2011


Even as the EURO continues to rally, the USD is breaking down through some critical levels.

While regular readers know my long term view on the USD, let's not forget that the USD appears to be oversold at the moment.

Below is a screenshot of the CNBC website-7th March 2011 - A classic contrarian indicator! As traders get caught up in the surge in Silver prices, everyone is bearish on the USD all of a sudden.
Turmoil in the middle east and North Africa continues to dominate news headlines, easily crowding out news of dissatisfied government workers' unions and the ongoing austerity measures being implemented by state and local governments in the USA.
Discerning readers will realise that the troubles with Club Med and the 'PIIGS' are far from over.
Meanwhile the price of Crude Oil continue to trend upwards, and with the US unemployment rate near 10%; this will add further stress to the recovery on main street.
The stock markets may continue their upward rally for now, but a toxic combination of high unemployment and rising food & energy prices may be just as detrimental to the US Equity market rally as they proved to be for the ''dictators'' of North Africa.
A sell off in the overbought equity markets could trigger a counter trend rally in the oversold USD.

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