Thursday, April 29, 2010


The monsoon rainfall last year was well below average.
As India waits for the arrival of the south west monsoon, everyone's hoping for a normal monsoon this year.

Insufficient rainfall resulted in rising food prices, as the prices of vegetables and food grains soared.

Last year, consumer demand in rural areas held up pretty well despite a poor monsoon. Continuing inflation, especially ''food price'' inflation will have a dampening effect on consumer consumption in the auto, FMCG & durable goods sectors.

Thus, a back to back season of insufficient rainfall will have serious repercussions for the Indian economy.

In the meantime, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal monsoon across the country this year.

'''Lending a quantitative perspective to the available indications, IMD said the total rainfall during the June-September monsoon season would be 98 per cent of the long period average. This assessment is subject to a model error of ± 5 per cent.'''

Lastly, just a warning for those who may blindly follow the forecasts of the IMD!!

''''Last year too IMD had predicted a near-normal rainfall of 96 per cent. Two months later, in June, it issued an update scaling down its assessment to 93 per cent of normal. Both these predictions went awry. IMD then revised its forecast for a third time in August, this time predicting 87 per cent of normal rains.

These predictions, however, turned out wrong and the country received only 77 per cent of normal rainfall. This led to a drought in large parts of the country.'''''


TAKE A LOOK-India forecasts normal monsoon rainfall

Monsoon to dispel clouds over sugar, grain

MD predicts normal monsoon

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