Wednesday, October 28, 2009


It's been a good week so far for the USD.

After sliding against most currencies since the start of the year, there are now calls for a USD bottom. Over the last few weeks, I cautioned Gold bugs about taking fresh positions in Gold, given that the USD was considerably oversold at the time.

Reasons for the USD rebound?

The USD has been quite oversold for a while, as money was flowing out of the USD to riskier assets - and equity markets everywhere got their fair share of this fund flow. Is the party over and will we see fundflow reversing back to the USD?

US Consumer confidence continues to stumble: Clearly the guys on Main Street aren't having as good a time as the suits on Wall Street. Could it be that this recovery is built on a foundation of sand!
Almost ironic that poor economic news and data is causing a stampede back into the USD.

Sceptics, contrarians and some conspiracy theorists find the timing of the USD rally and bad economic data quite convenient, given the on going mega USD Bond auction.
Its great to have a USD rally when you're having a humongous debt sale!

USD Carry trade: It seems that the USD has recently become a favoured borrowing currency for carry trade. You can thank Bernanke for his almost zero interest rate policy!
It's always risky when the borrowed currency is oversold. (Look at the 3rd chart)
As the stock markets start to correct and carry trades are unwound, we could see the USD rally still further.

Lastly, could this all be a movie trailer of the 'strong USD ' policy of the USA, before the G 20 meets next month. I mean the Chinese and the Europeans aren't too happy with the performance of the 'strong USD' policy of the US Treasury so far.

It's too early to say if the USD has turned the corner for now.
For the record, I continue to be a long term USD Bear. Bear market rallies in the USD should not be confused with any significant improvements in the fundamentals of the USD!

Stock markets globally have been searching for reasons to continue their upward rise, and did look rather overbought! A USD rally has almost become a reason to sell stocks!
Unwinding carry trade is USD positive.

GOLD: It too was looking for a reason to correct. I think that any consolidation in the PM space is good. Its better to see a stable and sustainable rise rather than an unsustainable short term spike. A rallying USD could see gold drift downwards, as punters and traders close speculative positions in gold.

EDIT: US Dollar Future and a World Currency - by Chris Laird of 'The Prudent Squirrel Newsletter'. He's one of the 'experts' I pay close attention to

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