Monday, September 7, 2009


The Bullish Bear is going on vacation !

Here's a round up before I go.

  • Stock Markets everywhere continue to ignore the risk of a possible relapse.
  • Valuations leave little or no margin of safety for any disappointment
  • While companies are ''surpassing estimates'' when they report their quarterly results; dividends are being cut and a cash flow analysis shows that many companies are still having quite a tough time dealing with this 'turbulent economy.'
  • The Indian Stock Market is brushing off news of a ''failed/deficient/sub par'' monsoon. The bulls seem to think that rural demand will not suffer because of the insufficient monsoon.
  • Gold is once again knocking on the door of $1000. It's getting a little crowded here, so let's just wait and see how it goes. There's a lot of excitement that can quickly turn into disappointment if Gold fails to break the $1000 mark. For long term Gold holders , it's important to remember, that as Gold nears $1000 there are many speculative traders with stop-losses, punting on a clean break past $1000. So expect a choppy trading week in Gold!
  • The strength in Gold, despite no 'breakdown in the USD' is strange. Gold Bugs taking fresh positions now, must be aware of the risk of a USD rebound in case the stock markets start to correct. (No signs of crashing markets just yet!)
  • U.S. Unemployment numbers continue to be viewed as 'signs of an improving economy.' Don't ask me how or why!!!
  • Everytime there's bad news on the economy, the financial media interprets it as ''the worst is now behind us''----complacency in the bull camp?

Overall. a good time to go on vacation I think.

A largely liquid portfolio continues to be the safest way to go for now. Also, hold onto your positions in Gold!

I will drop by with a post now and then, if I see anything interesting.

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