Friday, April 17, 2009


Here are some charts from the website.
Do visit the site for some excellent analysis.

I've heard that markets bottom 6-9 months before an economic recovery. Thing is, going into 2007-08, the markets had no clue of the 'financial tsunami' that was around the corner; so much for the efficiency of markets.

Main street continues to struggle with debt, consumer consumption is weak, corporate profitability is set to drop still further and the banks could have more bad news on the way.

Are the banks really as solvent as they claim they are?
Will they able to absorb further shocks from credit card defaults, commercial real estate defaults and home foreclosures that may increase as unemployment numbers rise?

As Nouriel Roubini recently pointed out

--- The markets 'growth estimates' may be too optimistic given slowing growth and rising unemployment numbers
--- Firms are trying to deleverage by selling illiquid assets in an illiquid market.
--- The economic recovery everywhere will be weaker and take longer than people expect, and the same goes for a sustained market recovery.

No comments: