Wednesday, April 16, 2008

DON'T BELIEVE THEM when they say that…..

  • The US Dollar has bottomed out.
  • The US FED will save the day!
  • The Fed and US Treasury believe in a strong US Dollar policy.
  • GOLD is overvalued and must be sold.
  • GOLD is illiquid.
  • You must Sell gold and buy stocks!!!!
  • Inflation is not a threat and is under control.
  • We’ve seen the last of the write downs and losses at the banks. Their books are clean now.
  • Financial stocks are cheap after the massive correction over 2007.
  • The Credit Crunch is over!!
  • The Sub prime mess is contained, and the US economy is resilient.
  • Resetting ARMs will cause no trouble at all.
  • The US Consumer is in good health, and is ready to leverage up again.
  • It’s a good time to buy a home in the US.
  • The US Economy will turn around sometime next year, or later in 2008, once we’re over this temporary blip.


  • Inflation is becoming a major dilemma for Central Banks everywhere.
  • Bailouts only come to those overloaded with ‘derivative counterparty risk’ (You cannot be a threat to overall stability!!)
  • Deleveraging is a long and painful process. ( even Buffet recently said so!!)
  • Losses from Toxic CDOs will only increase as the housing slump deteriorates further.
  • The Banks won’t lend to each other, because there is no trust.
  • They don’t know the losses in their own books, let alone try guessing potential losses in the counterparty’s books.
  • Rate cuts won’t solve problems of fear and uncertainty, let alone deal with an oversupply in US home inventory.
  • This is an Insolvency crisis, coupled with total loss of confidence, in addition to the much talked about credit crisis.
  • The Pundits who were bullish on emerging markets going into 2008 are nowhere to be seen. Some even recommend waiting for a further fall(after the massive crash) in emerging markets before attempting any fresh buying.
  • The government may brush aside inflation fears…. but rising unemployment from resulting job cuts, will be a difficult issue to deal with in an election year.

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