Friday, September 19, 2008

$ 247 Billion - Just how much is that anyway?

Today,Central Banks around the world worked together to ease the liquidity crunch.
'''The Cash injection package '''to the tune of $ 247 Billion, to calm global financial markets, tells us that we are indeed in desperate times.

Read on below to get an idea of how large that sum of money actually is !!!!

At the current USD/INR exchange rate of approx. 46 ( 1$ = INR 46),
$ 247 Billion works out to
Rs 11, 36,200 Crores.

To put that into perspective for Indian Investors, the current marketcap of the NSE Nifty 50 Index as of yesterday's close is Rs. 24,57,226 Crores ( ie Rs. 245,72,261 Million) .

Meanwhile US Markets rallied sharply towards the end of the trading day as Hank Paulson is now proposing a massive bailout package for the financial sector!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AGAIN!!
Gold fell sharply to $853 after briefly rising over $ 900 earlier in the day.
Dangerous but interesting times!!!


Thursday, September 18, 2008

US FINANCIALS : D - DAY

I've said it time and again, you just can't trust these guys!!!!Countrywide Financial - Bear Stearns - Freddie Mac - Fannie Mae - Lehman Bros - AIG...and a few more big names all set to join the list.
You may blame the short sellers for the steep stock declines, but the blame lies squarely with incompetent regulators, CEOs and management and risk managers, whose models never seemed to figure out the dangers of overleveraged derivative positions and the simple fact that home prices would not rise forever!

GOLD - THE FLIGHT 2 SAFETY

For the past few days, I have been puzzled at the movements in the GOLD price, given all the turmoil in global financial markets. Although I added to my gold positions yesterday, I thought I would delay todays purchase until tomorrow, expecting a better price!!!!!!Well I just missed a 11 % rally in the precious metal!!!!!!!
BY A SINGLE TRADING SESSION !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Although prices were pretty flat through the Indian trading session ( despite news of the AIG Bailout which came in about mid day IST), in the US trading session, Gold rose sharply as fears of further bankruptcies across global financial firms triggered a flight to safety!!!

I'm not sure how much short covering contributed to today's rally, but things are getting pretty serious. Panics of this magnitude are extremely dangerous, as solvent firms can get dragged down by the overleveraged collapsing ones.

The USD rally over the past week appears to have stalled, but I would not be surprised to see gold rally, even as the USD holds out for a while longer, as the selloff across various asset classes continues.
Investment bank CEO's may blame the short sellers and try to calm panic stricken investors, but it appears that the overleveraged CDO, CDS mess is derailing the US economy at the moment.
Interesting times...........watch this space!

Friday, September 12, 2008

BAILOUTS: HERE WE GO AGAIN

In my November 2007 post, I quoted the last two paragraphs of the book ' The Great Crash 1929 ' by the late John Kenneth Galbraith. Well here they are again.

" Wall Street, in recent times, has become, as a learned phrase has it, very 'public relations conscious'. Since a speculative collapse can only follow a speculative boom, one might expect that Wall Street would lay a heavy hand on any resurgence of speculation. The Federal Reserve would be asked by bankers and brokers to lift margins to the limit; it would be warned to enforce the requirement sternly against those who might try try to borrow on their own stocks and bonds in order to buy more of them. The public would be warned sharply and often of the risks inherent in buying stocks for the rise. Those who persisted, nonetheless, would have no one to blame but themselves. The position of the Stock Exchange, its members, the banks, and the financial community in general would be perfectly clear and as well protected in the event of a further collapse as sound public relations allow,

As noted, all this might logically be expected. It will not come to pass. This is not because the instinct for self-preservation in Wall Street is poorly developed. On the contrary, it is probably normal and may be above. But now, as throughout history, financial capacity and political perspicacity are inversely correlated. Long-run salvation by men of business has never been highly regarded if it means disturbance of orderly life and convenience in the present. So inaction will be advocated in the present even though it means deep trouble in the future. Here, at least equally with communism, lies the threat to capitalism. It is what causes men who know that things are going quite wrong to say that things are fundamentally sound.''

The book was first published in 1954, and provides a detailed account of the events leading upto the 1929 crash and the consequences thereafter.
The last paragraph, sums up the situation in which we find world markets today.
Banks failing after markets close on Friday, Bailout packages announced on Sundays & bailouts and deals without any long term solution in mind.
Countrywide Financial, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and now maybe Lehman Brothers: all too big to (let) fail!!!
Well the times they are a-changin!!
http://www.bobdylan.com/#/songs/times-they-are-changin
The current leadership had better sit up and take notice, before they steer our ship right off the cliff !!

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

FRANNIE : Privatizing Profits & Socializing losses:

It started with : THERE WILL BE NO BAILOUT! BECAUSE WE DON’T NEED ONE !
http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/11/dodd-fannie-freddie-biz-wash-cx_bw_0711housing.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7gQ4D5KgrIQ
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/business/july-dec08/paulson_07-11.html
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/departing-paulson-says-no--bailout-for-fannie-and-freddie-1452477.html

Well that’s all folks! Bailout done and done!!
Privatizing Profits & Socializing losses:
Bailing out homeowners who borrowed way more than they could ever repay
Bailing out banks that were downright reckless while issuing these loans
Bailing out the investment banks that created a CDO web so complex that they don’t know what they own, let alone value these securities.
And finally making the tax payer the paymaster of the whole catastrophe!
Talk about long term damage to integrity of the financial system!!!



2008 has been a year of immense strain for world financial markets, one shock after another, with no end to the bad news in sight. Sunday’s actions make the Bear Stearns debacle look like child’s play. Each shock is worse than the last one, and the men at the helm continue to reassure us that everything’s under control. Imagine if things took a turn for the worse!!!

The one thing I found really incredible was the continued strength in the USD and weakness in Precious metals even after the announcement.
National debt is going through the roof, the housing market continues to seek lower levels, inflation and unemployment are rising!!! and no one seems to care, and the USD rally continues

Well, what’s coming up next?
Will we see the GSE’s now shrink their Mortgage Portfolios?
How will this impact the housing market?
Can they issue shares to the Treasury in the future if they can’t pay up on promised Preferred stock dividends?
Are we going to see a rate cut from the FED?
So who’s next Washington Mutual or Lehman Brothers?
_______________________________________________
BIG PICTURE covers it well.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/fannie-freddi-2.html

Well, if the bailouts not enough, the lets tweak the taxation laws for the GSEs
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/paulson-gives-fannie-and-freddie-tax.html

Well the shares are now where they should be! Heres who owns them/ did until a few months ago!!!
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/09/08/who-is-taking-the-big-hits-on-fannie-freddie-shares/
Jim Rogers on the Bailout
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/09/06/jim-rogers-book/
US Is "More Communist than China": Jim Rogers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26603489

Other links worth a read
http://seekingalpha.com/article/94218-8-quick-comments-on-the-freddie-fannie-bailout-plan
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/ny-times-fannie-freddie-nationalization.html
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/freddie-fannie-notable-comments-mainly.html
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2008/09/one-of-many-sca.html
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2008/09/dont-say-you-we.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQwEq.iCBzMk&refer=home
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b349ff60-7cd8-11dd-8d59-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1129.htm

Sunday, August 31, 2008

ABX 3 !

Each time I write about the ABX Indices, the news continues to deteriorate.
'The ABX Index is a series of credit-default swaps based on 20 bonds that consist of subprime mortgages.ABX contracts are commonly used by investors to speculate on or to hedge against the risk that the underling mortgage securities are not repaid as expected.' http://www.markit.com/

Heres the latest update!
Previous posts on the ABX Indices
November 10, 2007
http://thebullishbear.blogspot.com/2007/11/subprime-mortgages-abx-indices.html
March 24, 2008
http://thebullishbear.blogspot.com/2008/03/abx-meltdown.html

Friday, August 29, 2008

INDIAN EQUITIES: GOING NOWHERE FAST

2008 has not been a good year for Indian Equities:-Political uncertainty, moderating growth, galloping inflation, a rising Fiscal deficit and massive Foreign Institutional Investment outflows. GDP growth dipped below the 8% mark for the first time in the last 9 quarters, and Fuel and Fertilizer subsidies are going add stress to the Fiscal deficit.

2009 is an election year and the reform process is likely to take a backseat.

FIIs meanwhile have been sellers, and every rise is being sold into at the moment.

FII NET INVESTMENTS 2008 http://www.sebi.gov.in/Index.jsp?contentDisp=FIITrends

Valuations are a lot more reasonable now, and value is gradually emerging.

More on the outlook for the Indian Economy, and valuations of Indian Equities in the next post.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

REAL ESTATE MELTDOWN : SPAIN

Rising unemployment, high household debt, and a sharp slowdown in the property market has crushed economic growth in Spain.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=e822190b-210e-4af8-8cb1-d520be63ccb2

The weightage of the Financial Services and Real Estate sector in the Madrid Stock Exchange General Index (IGBM) is 40.55% !!! http://www.bolsamadrid.es/ing/contenido.asp?menu=4&enlace=/ing/indices/igbm/igbm2002.htm
As bank lending tightens, large real estate developers could face funding problems and as the ‘sales slump’ continues, the meltdown could intensify.

Deleveraging is going to be a long and painful process.
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/why-spains-banking-sector-could-be-facing-a-death-blow-22425.aspx
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSL2990999120080429

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

2008 - THE SLOWDOWN

Global markets continue to stumble in an uncertain business environment.
Emerging markets like Brazil (BOVESPA Index), India (BSE SENSEX), and China (Shanghai Composite) have had a particularly difficult time.
So are these slowdown fears for real? Over the next few posts I will analyze the impacts of a global slowdown in the backdrop of a highly leveraged and interconnected global economy.
To begin with here are some charts -
Shipping rates
have had a volatile 2008. In the first half of 2008 a weakening USD coupled with high oil prices pushed commodities and shipping rates to new highs.


Is Chinese demand finally slowing? Or is this just a blip on the charts due to the 2008 Olympics?

2008 has been a terrible year for equities.

Fears of a US led global slowdown and a risk averse investing environment have resulted in large outflows from emerging market equities.

2008 so far----

THE LAST 5 YEARS The Chinese stock market is down very sharply since it peaked in the last quarter of 2007.
Indian Equities have fared better, over the 6month and 5 year horizon. Over the last 3 quarters however, growth rates have moderated, and as Indian companies continue to expand, with inadequate local infrastructure(transport bottlenecks and power shortages) and domestic inflation rates of just under 13%, we are in for some challenging times ahead. The Indian Financial sector has fared much better than its global counterparts, but as lending standards tighten, interest rate sensitive sectors like Automobiles and Real Estate are likely to underperform. I will soon put up my update on the Indian Economy.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

GOLD – WHAT HAPPENED?

Well I’m back to posting again after a 2 week gap! There’s a lot to catch up on so its going to take a few posts.

Gold has been slam-dunked, Oil is on its way down, the USD rebounds and the rally in Commodities is over!!!
So what happened?
Lets begin with an interesting article I came across on ‘ Central bank Intervention in currency markets’
http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current Mystery Solved 7 Aug 2008.

The Triggers:

The slowdown in Europe will result in the ECB cutting rates.
The USA lead things on the way down, and so will be the first to recover.
The global slowdown has lead to a fall in oil consumption.


Weakening trends in the EURO and Oil and a strong USD

If there’s one thing that’s clear now, it’s that the ECB is in an equally tight spot as the FED. The FED has company!!! Does the ECB cut rates to avert a recession or does it fight inflation?

Are falling Oil prices a good sign, if they are due to contraction in demand?
Clearly speculators are bailing out too, but global demand is slowly!

The USD has pulled back sharply as the ‘Short USD/Long commodities’ trade unwound and the current uptrend is almost as severe as the breakdown in Gold. It should meet some resistance near the 78 level on the USDX.(Remember that the USDX index is EURO dominated)
So is the worst really over? (AGAIN)
While gold looks really beaten up at the moment, and Gold stocks have fared even worse, not a lot has changed in the last 2 weeks.
Central Banks are still dead scared of deflation!! And will use every means possible to get another bubble going. So that’s going to mean more intervention,bailouts and handouts to the clowns that got us into this mess in the first place.
Its also important to remember that Gold has historically never been strong in the May – August period, (usually bottoming out by August end.), so the USD rebound has added to the severity of the sell off.

I have been buying gold on declines, as it has smashed through one support after another ( $ 878.5, $ 850, $ 790), by staggering my purchases on the way down. The selloff has been so sharp that I expect a pullback especially as the Euro/USD has strong support at the 1.45 level.

So is this the return of Goldilocks? I think not!


----The US Housing market is still in a mess
----Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae need a bailout – or let’s just change the rules of the game for them!
----Are the write downs in the financials over? Or is the best yet to come? ( Like the recent settlements in the Auction rate Securities Lawsuits) More Capital raising / financial firms cutting Dividends?
----I ask again? What is the current market value of the ‘Toxic Bear Stearns securities held by the FED’ – No write downs there I hope?
----Is the strength in the USD due to any inherent fundamental change in the USD, or just due to the slowdown elsewhere?
----Can the Fed really hike rates to support the USD?—risking a meltdown in the US housing market and a collapse in US Consumer sentiment and consumption. On the other hand, how would the USD react, if the FED cut rates late into 2008?

----How long are the Central Bank Currency market interventions going to keep things afloat? Are they tackling the crux of this crisis( overleveraging and cheap credit) or just delaying an impending meltdown?
----Will the Volatile USD, (now strengthening), cause large USD holders to try to diversify out of the USD?
----Who’s going to blink first and do a bailout of a major Financial Institution- The Fed or the ECB?
----Even if the strength in the USD holds for a while yet, would you put money into stocks in an environment of inflation and slowing growth, where defaults across many sectors( not just financials) are likely to increase? I would be extremely wary of any analysts trying to call a bottom in stocks (especially the financials)!!!
----What impact is the Stronger USD going to have on the financial results of large US multinational companies whose results until recently have been ‘bolstered’ by the sliding USD. Extraordinary Forex losses in the second half maybe?