THE FED'S NEXT MOVE

GENERAL MOTORS : TOO BIG TO FAIL?

As the GM stock sinks to 53 year lows, the company is battling

• A slowing economy
• Falling consumer confidence
• High oil prices
• Falling demand for its SUVs and pickups
• A tighter credit market
• An underfunded pension fund
• Rising healthcare liabilities and costs
  

As the US economy slows, even the Japanese Car manufacturers ( Toyota, Honda & Nissan) are having a hard time. Yesterday, there were rumours that Chrysler may file for bankruptcy. The company strongly denied this.

If unemployment figures worsen, the combination could be disastrous for the US Auto industry.

Will the Authorities have to step in with a bailout package????

The FED did it for Countrywide Financial and Bear Stearns.

IS GM TOO BIG TO FAIL ????

BERNANKE, BANKS & BARTENDERS

As the markets await the next FED decision, newsflow on the economy continues to deteriorate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajoJ77c7SY.I&refer=home

The tough talking Fed will have to deal with a credit crisis, a slowing economy, increasing job losses and raging inflation!!!

Take a look at the Standard & Poor's 500 Banks Index!!!

Also, heres an interesting post on the Financial Armageddon website: http://www.financialarmageddon.com/

Cutting Tips: http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2008/06/cutting-tips.html

The slowing economy is hurting Bartenders, Waiters, hair stylists and Taxi drivers.

I think Mr. Bernanke had better take a look at this!!!

CRASHING US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

At last the US Fed has come to accept the real threat of inflation.

Rising food and fuel prices, rising unemployment, a falling housing market and prospects of a deeper than expected recession are hurting consumer demand.

The FED is looking to possibly raise rates to tackle inflation and support the US Dollar.

The struggling US Housing market and Mortgage derivative market will react negatively to any rate hike.

Calling Bernanke's Bluff ???

Can he actually raise rates and risk a market meltdown ?

Can he hike rates before the upcoming elections?

Will he allow the EURO,USD interest rate differential to widen if the ECB raises rates?

CHINESE WORKERS IN INDIA

Now this may come as a surprise to many!!!!!
Indian companies hiring Chinese workers in India!!!!!!!!

Chinese manufacturing costs are amongst the lowest in the world.
Chinese Capital goods companies are competing with their Indian counterparts, to supply equipment to upcoming power plants and mega power projects in India

A combination of shortage of 'technically qualified' manpower and competitive product pricing appears to be the major challenge for the Indian manufacturing and EPC (engineering procurement construction) sector.

WATCH THIS SPACE!!
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/06/16/stories/2008061650990100.htm
http://www.thehindu.com/2007/07/09/stories/2007070956840300.htm
http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/jan/21china.htm

CRISIS IN VIETNAM

• Vietnam's inflation rate recently topped 25%.
• The trade deficit in the first five months of 2008 stands at $14 billion vs. $11 billion for 2007.
• The prime interest rate to has been raised to 14%.
• Is a drastic currency devaluation coming?

For a country that was growing like a ‘New China’ until recently, things seem to have taken a terrible turn. As foreign investors lose confidence, the stock market continues to plummet.

Yet another lesson in emerging market investing. These are markets that lack depth, and large foreign investment flows can really distort valuations ( both upward and downward).
There is money to be made in markets like Vietnam and other emerging markets, provided that you buy cheap and are invested for the long term.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-06-13-voa16.cfm
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/06/12/vietnam-china-inflation-oped-cx_dhs_0612viet.html
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4127593.ece

RISING FOOD PRICES

Rising food prices continue to fuel inflation fears the world over. Flooding due to rain in the US midwest and a weaker US Dollar are driving prices higher
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUST29090620080609
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRT0a6qnmxwg&refer=home
While Corn prices are at record highs, Wheat prices pulled back sharply from their recent highs, as Wheat production is expected to increase this season.
'''''Food Price driven Inflation'''''' is going to be a serious challenge for many governments and Central Banks in an election year (read: Elections in the US & India)
WHEAT
CORN
SOYBEAN

US FINANCIALS : Here we go again!

Crude Oil prices at record highs, Falling Home Prices, Rising Unemployment & Tensions in the Middle East-----The US Markets closed deep in the red, down over 394 points.

I have been bearish on US Financials for a while, and the recent downgrade of the Bond Insurers (yes, they lost their AAA rating at last!!!!) will continue to drag these stocks down further.
Avoid any fresh buying, or value buying here(not cheap enough yet!)

FUEL CRISIS : AIRLINES

As Crude Oil prices continue to trade above the $125 mark, Airlines around the world are struggling with their Aviation Turbine Fuel (Jet Fuel) Bills.

"""" “For every dollar that the price of fuel increases, our costs go up by US$1.6 billion,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA Director General and CEO at the Association’s 64th Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit (WATS/AGM) """"""


"""""The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on governments, industry partners and labour to address the fuel crisis that is pushing airlines into the red. IATA forecasts a loss of US$2.3 billion for 2008 based on an average oil price of US$106.5 per barrel Brent crude."""""""

http://www.iata.org/index.htm
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2008-06-02-02.htm
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2008-06-02-01.htm

After the Bear Stearns bailout, Airlines are going to be next, unless oil prices cool off soon.

Meanwhile in India, ATF prices are among the most expensive in the world, as the government subsidises other fuels such as Petrol, Diesel, Kerosene and Cooking Gas (LPG).
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Economy/Govt_moves_towards_fuel_price_hike/articleshow/3090992.cms

As a result, most airlines in India are now resorting to raising the fuel surcharge on tickets
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News_By_Industry/Air_fares_head_north_as_carriers_hike_fuel_surcharge/articleshow/3094206.cms