Showing posts with label CREDIT CRISIS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CREDIT CRISIS. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

EURO ZONE DEBT CRISIS -ANY SOLUTION YET?

I guess not!

Here's an excellent cartoon by "KAL :  THE ECONOMIST : LONDON ENGLAND"

It came out around the time of the Wimbledon Tennis Tournament
It is titled....."DEUCE | Meanwhile, in the Euro Zone"

SOURCE:
https://www.nytsyn.com/cartoons/cartoons?start_date=1901-01-01&search_id=74680&page=2#783810

http://www.kaltoons.com/
Kevin Kallaugher (KAL) is the editorial cartoonist for The Economist magazine of London.
For all those who may not have heard of him, he is the artist behind the famous BUY SELL Cartoon 
http://www.kaltoons.com/wordpress/portfolio/?album=1&gallery=6

Along with INGRAM PINN of the FT, he is one of the legends of the world of Financial and Political Cartoons.




Wednesday, July 18, 2012

EUROPEAN YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT - A REAL CRISIS.

A really worrying issue that has only started to feature in business news recently, is youth unemployment.

Below is a chart of European youth unemployment by Adam English at Inside Investing Daily.

Another Link, this time from the Telegraph:

Youth unemployment passes 50pc in Spain and Greece - Telegraph

Thursday, April 7, 2011

VIX & COMPLACENCY & the UNPREDICTABILITY of MARKETS

Despite all the news on Libya, Japan, the EU Debt crisis and the discussions of raising the US Federal debt ceiling, global stock markets continue to trend upwards.

Are we overdue for a spike in the VIX ?

Friday, March 25, 2011

EVENT RISK FOR MARKETS - CAVEAT EMPTOR

Global equity markets these days seem to be totally unaffected by all the geopolitical turmoil and natural disasters of the last few months.

Once again the ever cautious David Rosenberg chips in with words of wisdom, alerting investors to the many risks that the market is currently ignoring. (Note to readers - David Rosenberg's Newsletter ends its free trial period this month, so this will be the last of his charts on this blog)

Saturday, March 12, 2011

GEOPOLITICAL NEWS IMPACTING MARKETS

The last couple of months have really been a roller coaster ride for the world economy.

Whether its the unrest in the Middle East leading to surging Crude Oil prices, or rising food prices or EU Sovereign debt troubles, or the recent Japanese Quake and resulting Tsunamis...... a lot has been going on.
The incredible damage to property and the loss of innocent lives in case of the Japanese quake is really tragic.

There was another important bit of news that went by unnoticed.
"" Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker on Friday signed into law the controversial bill that eliminates most union rights for public employees""
Wisconsin governor signs anti-union rights bill World DAWN.COM
Wisconsin governor signs into law union curbs Reuters
Clearly the crisis on Main Street is not over yet. As David Rosenberg recently said, the impact of cost cutting and downsizing at the state and local government level will really undermine the '''ongoing consumer recovery'''
So I think that it's time that the guys on Wall Street sit up and take notice.
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The Dow Jones may continue to brush off the impact of rising gasoline & food prices and the discontent on Main Street for now, but the prudent investor must realise that its now too late to join the equity market bandwagon. The risk reward ratio is not in favour of the ''long only'' investor and his margin of safety is far too inadequate at the current time.

Monday, March 7, 2011

IS THE USD OVERSOLD ?

Even as the EURO continues to rally, the USD is breaking down through some critical levels.


While regular readers know my long term view on the USD, let's not forget that the USD appears to be oversold at the moment.


Below is a screenshot of the CNBC website-7th March 2011 - A classic contrarian indicator! As traders get caught up in the surge in Silver prices, everyone is bearish on the USD all of a sudden.
Turmoil in the middle east and North Africa continues to dominate news headlines, easily crowding out news of dissatisfied government workers' unions and the ongoing austerity measures being implemented by state and local governments in the USA.
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Discerning readers will realise that the troubles with Club Med and the 'PIIGS' are far from over.
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Meanwhile the price of Crude Oil continue to trend upwards, and with the US unemployment rate near 10%; this will add further stress to the recovery on main street.
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The stock markets may continue their upward rally for now, but a toxic combination of high unemployment and rising food & energy prices may be just as detrimental to the US Equity market rally as they proved to be for the ''dictators'' of North Africa.
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A sell off in the overbought equity markets could trigger a counter trend rally in the oversold USD.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

IT'S NOT OVER YET !

Here's David Rosenberg with more words of caution.
It's not over yet!

Monday, November 15, 2010

BANANA REPUBLICS ...FINANCIAL CRISES & MEGA BAILOUT PACKAGES

Sorry for the infrequent posting of late.
The USD seems to be trying to stabilise, even as gold prices cool off after striking new highs.

Here is a fantastic article that addresses the topic of Banana Republics!
Currency wars / manipulation continue and as bailout packages are announced, many are still asking questions as to who the final beneficiaries of these handouts will be ??

Here's an excerpt from the NY Times article of Nicholas Kristof -

The richest 1 percent of Americans now take home almost 24 percent of income, up from almost 9 percent in 1976. As Timothy Noah of Slate noted in an excellent series on inequality, the United States now arguably has a more unequal distribution of wealth than traditional banana republics like Nicaragua, Venezuela and Guyana.

C.E.O.’s of the largest American companies earned an average of 42 times as much as the average worker in 1980, but 531 times as much in 2001. Perhaps the most astounding statistic is this: From 1980 to 2005, more than four-fifths of the total increase in American incomes went to the richest 1 percent.

That’s the backdrop for one of the first big postelection fights in Washington — how far to extend the Bush tax cuts to the most affluent 2 percent of Americans. Both parties agree on extending tax cuts on the first $250,000 of incomes, even for billionaires. Republicans would also cut taxes above that.

The richest 0.1 percent of taxpayers would get a tax cut of $61,000 from President Obama. They would get $370,000 from Republicans, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. And that provides only a modest economic stimulus, because the rich are less likely to spend their tax savings.

At a time of 9.6 percent unemployment, wouldn’t it make more sense to finance a jobs program? For example, the money could be used to avoid laying off teachers and undermining American schools.

Likewise, an obvious priority in the worst economic downturn in 70 years should be to extend unemployment insurance benefits, some of which will be curtailed soon unless Congress renews them. Or there’s the Trade Adjustment Assistance program, which helps train and support workers who have lost their jobs because of foreign trade. It will no longer apply to service workers after Jan. 1, unless Congress intervenes.

So we face a choice. Is our economic priority the jobless, or is it zillionaires?

Monday, August 2, 2010

David Rosenberg - on reasons to be worried about the investing environment

Many analysts and economists ''label'' David Rosenberg a perma bear!
Below is his answer to a question during a recent interview.

Ignore David Rosenberg's sound advice and cautious outlook at your own risk!
Economic news flow continues to be dismal. Far too many structural problems remain unresolved for analysts to extrapolate earnings based on the ongoing rebound in equity markets.


Friday, May 7, 2010

MANIC MARKETS - 6 May, 2010 !

Well, here we go again.
I don't know what happened, or why, or who, or whom!!
Let' s wait for more clarifications...
Nice move in Gold...........over $1,200 again!
As I said recently, this is just not the time to be taking on any undue risks.


Wednesday, May 5, 2010

......AND THE 'VIX' SOARS

Over the last couple of years, I've grown wary, well almost fearful when anyone says that any financial mess or crisis is '''contained'''.

Now, whenever I hear that the damage has been contained, I have come to expect the eventual cost of the crisis to be a whole lot more than initially estimated.

Some say that the crisis in Club Med is contained and that there is no risk of contagion.
Still others say that the finances of some states in the U.S.A., are not as terrible as pessimists may fear.

The prudent reader must read between the lines and ignore the noise in financial news as he makes his/her investment decisions.

The US is not immune to the current crisis in the Eurozone. A weak Euro will hurt US exports to Europe and subsidize European exports to the U.S.A.

Emerging market exporters are not immune to a slowdown in developed markets in the west.

As I've said in recent posts, it's not a time to be taking unnecessary risks.
Gold prices in the meantime have held up really well, despite a rally in the USD and a sudden sell off in global equity markets.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

THE MGM STUDIO DEBT DEBACLE

Here's another failed deal from the 'LBO bubble' days of 2005.

Cheap money lead to excessive valuations for buyouts.

As I read the article below in the Economic times newspaper last week, I was reminded once again of how experts, analysts and investment bankers continued to justify deals that were irrationally dangerous and value destructive!

The only guys who benefited from these deals, were the investment bank advisers who earned massive fees on these now failing LBO deals.


Lastly, I leave you with an interview of the ever consistent, rational and down to earth - David Rosenberg.

He continues to be the lone voice advising caution and recommending measures to minimize portfolio volatility!

Link:
The bear: Dead or just sleeping? - The Globe and Mail

Thursday, March 18, 2010

REAL ECONOMY vs PAPER ECONOMY

Came across 'Planet Real vs Planet Paper' in the Taipan Daily, 24th February, 2010.

At a time when Wall Street seems to be totally ignoring Main Street, it's always worthwhile to take a step back and analyse the 'real' vs 'paper' economy.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Bernanke: Why are we still listening to this guy?

Another link from Mish !

Just incredible how wrong an ''expert'' can be.
Be careful when you blindly follow expert advice!!!

While the crisis of 2008-2009 may have been the ''mother of all crises''; the very fact that the guys in the driving seat may have been 'making things up as we went along' is extremely disturbing.
After failing to forsee a crisis; to compound the fallout by resorting to short term fixes, instead of long term solutions is just tragic!

Friday, December 11, 2009

GREECE : DEBT, DEFICIT & FITCH DOWNGRADE

Over the last few months, Ireland, Spain, Greece & Dubai have been getting a lot of attention in the financial media.
Issues like unemployment, real estate meltdowns and debt concerns continue to haunt the ''green shoot recovery'' in Europe's weaker economies

Coming to Greece, Fitch Rating cut Greece's rating to BBB+, on lingering worries of an ever expanding deficit of 12.7% of output --- that's way over the EU limit.
Greek Swelling Deficit a Concern for Euro Area, Almunia Says ...
FT.com / Brussels - Brussels to rebuke Greece over budget deficit

Concerns over Greece's $350Bn debt resulted in the Greek/German 10yr yield spread widening to over 200bps
Greek/German 10-yr yld spread widens above 200bps | Reuters



The equity markets in Greece have pulled back sharply as well.
Just goes to show you how quickly these fragile stock markets can give up recent gains!

Clearly, the the aftershocks of the 2008 meltdown and subsequent credit contraction and asset deflation, continues to spit in the face of Wall Street's 'green shoot recovery'.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

U.S. Bank Failures 2009 : The Credit Crisis continues

Links:
FDIC: Bank Failures in Brief ( details of bank assets and deposits)
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For an economy that's on the road to recovery, the number of bank failures just continues to increase!
It's not a topic that gets covered on CNBC or most international business news networks either.
The Credit Crisis -> It's not over yet!

Friday, December 4, 2009

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

FOMC's wide range forecast!

Obviously, no one at the FOMC is ready to commit on a narrow range as far as economic forecasts go.

As David Rosenberg said in his update this Thanksgiving, FOMC estimates are quite wide. Take a look at his charts on this.




















Yes, these are the same guys who in 2008, thought that the sub prime crisis was contained, and that the U.S. economy was in decent enough shape.
And these are the same people who today, are encouraging individuals to spend rather than save, even borrow and spend to save the U.S. economy!
Listen to David Rosenberg - he's one guy who has been consistent in his views all along, and he DOES NOT think that the risk reward ratio for ''risky assets'' favours an investor today!